tv Nightly Business Report PBS November 5, 2012 6:30pm-7:00pm PST
>> this is n.b.r. >> susie: good evening everyone. i'm susie gharib. the clock is ticking to election day, just hours away before americans to go to the polls. a look tonight at what wall street wants most from the presidential election: an answer. >> tom: i'm tom hudson.re meantime, with the election expected to be close, and the fiscal cliff fast approaching, how republicans and democrats interpret the election results will set the tone for the talks. >> susie: and a double whammy for people in new york and new jersey: another storm takes aim at the region, asandy'san recovery slogs on, and the hunt for fuel heats up. >> tom: that and more tonight on "n.b.r."! >> susie: the u.s. presidential election is just one ay away, and that was the hot topic here
on wall street. but investors were still cautious about making major moves ahead of the election, so stocks posted just modest gains, and trading volume was light. the dow re 19 points, thee nasdaq added 17, and the s&p up three points. but, where stocks go from here may depend on who wins the white house tomorrow night. suzanne pratt reports. >> reporter: wall street is hardly back to normal, with reminders of hurricane sandy still obvious everywhere. but, at least the presidential election could provide a distraction for the coping with the storm's aftermath. the question is will the stock market continue to distract in the days following tomorrow'sng big contest? that may depend on its outcome. like many on wall street, nyse trader jonathan corpina predicts a mitt romney win will ba biga win for stock prices. >> i think when you see new regimes, new presidents come in
to play isort of a turmoil time, that change is always viewed as good and the market views that as good news. >> reporter: on the other hand, corpina doesn't think the re- election of president obama will trigger a selloff.so more likely he would expect to see status quo for stocks. >> i think people have bought intohe fact that the market is going to take a long time to recover, our economy is going to take a long time to recover and the market has seemed to stay on the track so to speak.in >> reporter: of course there is also the possibility however remote, that it might take days bore we know who will occupy the oval office. that's a scary flash back to the hanging chad debacle of the 2000 election. >> think the odds are against it. i shudder to think. but, you remember how bad it wa back in 2000. it was crazy, it drove people crazy, it drove the market crazy.
i don't think that happens. i think one of these guys wins handily. >> reporter: and, then there are those who believe the stock market will rally no matter who wins tomorrow. that's because at least some uncertainty will finally be removed from the market. suzanne pratt, "n.b.r.," new york. >> susie: joining us now for more on the markets and the election: jeff kleintop, chief market strategist at l.p.l. financial. so jeffing i'm sure a lot of people are asking you is obama on romney better for the markets. and what dow say, without is better for stocks? >> well, it's complex answer because it really matters what the wholeci complexion of washington looks like t really comes do c in many cases to who wins in the senats do we have an gop sweep with a romney win or do you still have a democratic senate that can really change the complexion of what this lame duck lex looks like and what the status quo election may lend itself to a quick res luig of a lame duck session
so a lot depends not just on the without wins the ovalgo office but its next two years in congress looks like. >> susie: so talk us through that. say president o ba am a wins the election but you have republicans dominating in congress.le what does that mean or the stock market. and vice veeasa, if romneysa becomes president romney and he has a democratic congressne, if he has to grapple with. >> i will service its second one first, if romney has to deal with a democratic songress, really a democratic senate the house probably stays in the hands of republicans. unlikely to craft a deal in a very short amount of timement remember we've got this fiscal cliff hitting next year and a lame duck session with a lot of that needs to be dealt with. could be very difficult, for example unlikely to see president obama as his last act in office sign a full extension of the bush tax cut so, likely we may go over the fiscal cliff in that scenario only to try and claw our way back out of it early next year. but it could be very dff uult to do. that could be a negative scenario for the markets.
maybe a more positive one is electionquo outcome where at least you know who the players are going to be, and you know generally what the terms are. they will likely come to some agreement on pit gating many of the big negative aspects of the fiscal cliff, befe year end that could giveemarkets the clarity they need so a littles caution now but maybe later as a resolution formed later this year, we finally start to see a beginning of a rally and a return to the markets by investors. >> susie: where does the economy fit into all of this? is the economy just continue to limp along whether it is esident obama who wins or governor romney? >> is it going to be the same? >> very likely. >> well, you know, as long as they come to se type of agreement over the fiscale cliff then yes. are you probably looking at a one-to-one inform percent drag on gdp which is pretty much how fast we are growing now. it brings us to the flat line for profits and the ecomy. but if we don't craft a deal of some scenario coming out of this election doesn't lend itself to a quick and
easy compromise in the lame duck session which it may not, that means we have anec ies that's really hit with a full brunt of theha fiscal cliff, some 3.5% drag we're most likely in a recession in that case with further pullback in spending and housing maybe, and a far deeper downturn. >> a lot of variables, a lot ofofactors as you have justju been talking about. how should people position their portfolio isst there a pre-election trade to do here? >> i think you can lighten up a little bit, have a bit of cash, i think, make some sense now along with maybe precious metals like gold and look to take advantage of any of e pullbacks in the next couple of months in this infighting in congress. i'm reminded of when we tried to increase the debt sealing in august of 2011, how that lead to a 13% rapid decline in the stock market, though we did ultimately increase the debt ceiling. omething along those lines but depending on the outcome of the election we could see sose industries fair better than others. for example romney mentioned
coal several times in the debate. ckl stooas are up 25% since s the first debate that could continue if romney winsment likewise better performance out of hmos and maybe some of the big banks. on the other side an obama win might mean better performance for some of the staples retailers on the extension of unemployment benefits and some of the beneficiaries of the affordable care act that is likely to remain in place like health-care facilities like hospitals and diagnostic labs and other health-care services companies. >> susie: all right a lot of good information, jeff, thank you so much. jeff kleintop, chief market strategist at lgl financial. thanks very much. >> tom: still ahead, tonight's word on the street: bonds, what happens to the market for u.s. i.o.u.'s if the fiscal cliff hits. the street.com's joe deaux joins us. one thing you may not be hearing e te onlection night is the m- word. mandate. it's tradition that the winners of an election claim to have the american people on their side. but if this election is as close
as the polls predict, there will be no mandate for either side. darren gersh reports. >> reporter: unless all those polls are wrong and tomorrow brings a big surprise one way or another, this election will be the remembered as one of the closest in history. it could also end with both parties convinced the folks back home don't want them to compromise on key issues like esxes a fairness and the size of government. >> there is going to be enough room for both sides to claim that they have the mantle from the american public or that nobody does and i think that hurts the iues on the fiscal cliff. >> reporter: if the president prevails tomorrow, he will be one of the only incumbents to win re-election with uewer votes than he got in his firstt campaign for the white house. if romney wins, it's possible democrats will keep control of the senate. either way, the winner's claim to a mandate will look very thin thiyear. and that will make it hard to move forward with a clear agenda. the numbers won't justify that. they will suggest that you will
have to deal with the other side because a lot of people didn't vote for you and they're part of the other side. but no one in washington is expecting this election to end with handshakes and good will. most signs now point to a status quo election. democrats keep the ite house and senate and republicans keep the house with relatively few losses. despite all the money and time spent in this campaign, it now looks likely to will end with the same political math that delivered gridlock through muchs of the last two years. that policy uncertainty may worry investors, but politicians seem to have learned to live with it. >> in an era of deeply polarized parties, mandates aren't as important. all that matters is winning. elections decide who wins and who loses and after that, it is up to the successful party to see if the ingredients exist for getting anything done. >> reporter: if this is a very close election, we may not know the final outcome for months, as
republicans and democrats fight over senate races and perhaps even the white house. and that will make it harder to find any coherent message on policy from the most expensive election in history.ha darren gersh, "n.b.r.," washington. >> sie: relief is rolling in for victims of super-storm sandy, but governor cuomo of new york said he still expects gasoline supplies to remain tight for a few more days. the scramble for fuel, is> heating up as another storm heads to sandy's hardest hit
areas, bringing with it freezing temperatures and more rain by mid-week. >> reporter: the lines for gasoline are shorter, but some stations are still without power, others did not have gas r to sell, and thousands of people are still relying on generator power and desperately need fuel. but help is on the way: fema gas tankers rolled into 10 locations across new york and new jersey overnight. bringing eight million gallons of gasoline, another 28 million gallons are on the way. triple-a now estimates that 60% of gas stations in the hardest hit areas of new york city, new jersey, and long island are up and running. for those who do get gas, they'll pay more for it. gasoline prices in the northeast have increased as much as 14 cents a gallon. >> tom: 1.3 million people are still without power tonight, one week after superstorm sandy. and as susie mentioned, temperatures are plummeting, as anothestorm approaches the northeast.
having no power and no heat is one concern. but thousands of peaple have also been left homeless by the storm, and that is fueling worries about a housing shortage. erika mieer reports.a >> repter: the new york city metropolitan area is slowlyep recovering after superstorm sandy. but many homes and businesses still don't have power, or heat. >> things that took months or years touild are gone, howui quickly we can get it back i'm not sure, but there will certainly be places that don't have por for a very long time.fo >> reporter: lack of power is more than just an inconvenience, it's also safety issue. temperatures have started hitting the low 30's, and a nor'easter is forecast later this week. so staying in unheated homes may not be an option mh longer. gasoline shortages are compounding the problem.er not only is there less fl to heat homes with generators.ss but leaving home brings other challenges, like finding gas for travel, and a place to stay. new york's mayor estimates as
many as 40,000 people in new york city may need temporary housing. but officials don't yet have a solution. the cost of the damage is staggering: between $30 and $50 billion, according to disaster modeling firm eqecat. and the possibility of more n.slocated people will only make the road to recovery more difficult. erika miller, "n.b.r.," new york. >> tom: there is no doubt the damage left from sandy will take years to repair and the memories of the storm certainly will last a lifetime for those in her path. but she's just the latest natural disaster long-term investors have been faced with. i recently spoke with mark hebner, the foundeand president of index fundsa advisors, asking him how long term investments should look at hurricane sandy. >> if they're holding a full equity portfolio they ally should be looking at time horizons of like 15 orhe maybe even 20 years to hang on to that investment, to be in a
position to have a reasonaly good chance of socatch turing the expected return of that portfolio. what is the risk , though, and the impact of the storm on closing stock trading. doesn't that impact investors' confidence and the market's ability to price these kinds of things right away when they are closed for two days? >> well, it might have some short term impact. it might alter some investors confidence. if you have your eye on the htong-term horizon, then a couple ofon dayseally is immaterial and really shouldea have little or no impact. over the long haul we rely on the fact that capitalism works and corporations in a broadly diversified a portfolio of 13,000 stocks from all over the world, which is what an appropriate portfolio of index fund was look like. >> tom: mark, how do you say passive am you are essentially telling investors calm down, sit on
your hand, keep the long term in mind. but how do you stay pass wive so much uncertainty even beyond sandy with the economic and political uncertainty? >> sure. well, tom, this is why prices change in a free market. the job of a free market is really to set prices so that investors are pperly rewarded for the risk they take. and if you think of my head as the expected return of an investment on one side we have market unsend-- uncertainty and the other side price f you have high uncertainty the price goes down so that the expected return can stay essentially the same. and when there's low uncertainty the fridays goes up and once again the expected return ur held essentially constant over time. and it's the understanding why prices change that help passive investors rely on markets to do a good job the assetting prices. you know we like to say that the only people who think that markets
don't work are the north korean, the cubans and the active managers. we think that markets actually do a good job at pricing risk and over time we found that to be thea case. >> susie: what did american manufactures hit hard by sandy learn from the impact of the 2011 earthquake in japan? learn about the global supply chain on: www.nbr.com, just look for the "nbr-u" tab. >> susie: here at the big board, tom, there was a little bit of news about the
economy, a few economic reports, there was a little bit of corporate neeps. bute really no cpelling headlines for investors to latch on to. pe the little b t of nervousness as well and reluctance going into the election. and probably more of the same tomorrow until we get the definitive answer on wednesday. >> tom: we can only hope there is a definitive answer by wednesday, opening bell. we have to get through tomorrow though. after getting through today t really was watching and waiting. t u.s. stocks drifted higher, rebounding slightly from friday's sell-off. the s&p 500 saw some selling pressure in the morning. it first moved into positive territory for the session when the institute of supply management services gauge continued expanding in october, but at a slower pace, and slower than expected. 90 minutes before the closing bell, the index moved back into day, endingor th with a gain of 0.2%.r trading volume was light on this election eve. 598 million shares moved on the big board. just under 1.5 billion traded on the nasdaq.
the materials sector was the best, up 0.7%. utilities saw the heaviest sector selling, falling 1.7%. entergy powered the losses among utility stocks. it provides electricity in arkansas, louisiana, mississippi and texas. quarterly profit and revenues fell thanks to weaker demand for electricity, low wholesale prices and an income tax settlement. the disappointing results pushed entergy's share price down 4.7%. volume more than tripled with the stock closing at its lowest price since july. georgia based utility southern company fell to its lowest stock price since april after reporting its own disappointing quarterly earnings. the company pointed to mild weather d an uncertain economy for lower sales. utilities have been in focus thanks to the devastation left by superstorm sandy. two of the public traded utilities still working to get power back on, continue seeing their stocks fall. new york power company consolidated edison was down 2d
w jersey's public servicey' enterprise group dropped another 1.2%. these are their lowest share prices sin may. meantime, lower energy prices, specifically for natural gas, helped profits at fertilize m maker c.f. industries. a booming farm ecliomy helped increase demand, making up forlp lower prices for its phosphate fertilizer. the stock rallied 3.2% before the company released its quaerly results after the closing bell tonight.es the stock rallied about 1% from this closing price in extended hours trading. the company is optimistic about its 2013 busines it expects farmers to plant a lot of corn next year, and need the fertilizer for it. real estate website zillow also was out with its results late today. while earnings per share were stronger than expected but its forecast came up short. after closing down 5., atn $34.37 per share, the stock fell
more than 21% in after hours trading, falling to $27 per share. the selling comes despite record usage by zillow's mobile and web platforms and record quarterly revenues. the weekend launch of apple's newest ipads may not have the hype of other apple product launches, but the company sold three million of the devices in the first three days they were on sale. that was stronger than the average estimate from analysts. shares gained 1.4%, recovering a little of what they have lost in the last six weeks. the three million sales includes the ipad mini and its newest full size ipad. a monday buyout in the banking business. stifel financial will buy k.b.w. the new company would concentrate on financial services for misized companies and individual investors. stifel is the buyer, spending 75 million to buy k.b.w.75 the deal offers k.b.w. sharelders the equivalent of $17.50 per share. the offer pushed k.b.w. shares up 7.2%, closing just shy th the implied buyout price.
the buyer fareshwell today too. stifel shares rallied 2.1% on the combination.we four of the five most actively traded exchange traded products. the lone loser among the group, the financial e.t.f., down 0.2%. and that's tonight's "market focus." >> tom: tonight's word on the street, bonds, regardless of the winner of tomorrow's election the fiscal cliff combination of automatic tax increases and government spending cuts remain scheduled to take effect in january. joe deaux is a reporter with
thestreet.com with us tonight at the nasdaq. joe, let's tackle this from the fixed income perspective.e the fiscal cliff threatens the economy,-s over stock investors but what about bond investors? >> bond investors have to watch out for the fiscalou cliff as well. a lot of analysts are not a souming that will completely go over it but they're really uncertain and saying you know there is a lot of repercussions that people with fixed income can v especially in mu icipal bonds. but i'm sure we'll get to that. >> tom: absolutely, normally uncertainty would help out the bond market. this year the bonds have done very well. there is no doubt about it but they have pealed in comparison to stocks, up double digits. government bd mutual funds up 3%.al corporate invest graded a rated bond funds up 7%, general municipal bond funds up 9% all according to lipper. so they've underpformed the stock market despite all this uncertainty. >> yeah, they have. and you know, they continue to go up. you know, you have some quantitative easing going
on. and so people have jumped into corporate bonds. you know, the municipal bonds have continued to be attractive. they're tax exempt. you know, so far, so good. but things could change. people have to take a look out. >> tom: let's focus on municipal bonds here. when you talk about municipal bonds are you talking about bonds underwritten by state governments, local governments and you know, the etf that follows the municipal bond market has held pretty steadyespite the risk ofe let government spending you think that may impact state revenues, wouldn't new. >> yeah, exactly. atmean the big thing that lot of the analysts were lling me that they are looking at when it comes to signs of the fiscal cliff, afterme it signs of tomorrow you have to look out for the question of broad-based tack reform and will that affect the tax exempt mumupal bond. if it d s, there is a lot of reason for people to jump out of it. the other argument is if weit keep the ta exemption or at least partially, and income tax, personal income tax goes up, people are going to
want to jump back into those somewhat tax expt or fully tax exempt e municipal bonds. and then the question of whether or not people would be grandfathered in if ultimately congress decides they're going to take that away. >> the devil is in the details, to doubt about it, when it comes to tax reform and the impact of all investors watch. about the fiscal cliff and the threat to easury bondea market because you could argue if the government is going to spend less money it needs to borrow less money, you could actually increase the value of the bonds out there in the market. >> right. so the big thing right now is with quantitative easing 3, q e3 what a lot of people are calling it, the open-ended asset backed, mortgage back securities purchases by the fed in which they're trying to force people out of the trawl safe treasuries and put them into corpora bonds. which is what we've been seeing is because of the higher prices, a lower yield. and so or because of this we're seeing a lot of people jump into these higher risk corporate bonds where they are low quality credit but
giving higher yields which is what investors are looking for. >> tom: across-the-board fixed income and stock investors looking for the higher yields in times of uncertainty with the fiscal cliff still approaching. do you own any position in the funds we mentioned here tonight, joe? >> no, tomi, do not.do >> tom: joe deaux at the intersection of fixed income and the fiscal cliff, with the street.com. >> susie: tomorrow on "n.b.r." it's election day, we head to the polls, to find o which economic issues are mostec important to voters. and with the presidential candidates raising more money than ever, we look at the big winner this election year: ad- ng.n and finally, they won't be toasting election day wins in kentucky or south carolina tomorrow.n both states have laws barring the sale of alcohol on election day, it applies to booze solin stores and restaurants. the laws are a holdover from the days of prohibition, but they're still on the books some 80 years latinr.r. while it's a misdemeanor offense in south carolina, tom, firstom
conviction carries a $200 fine and as much as 60 days in jail. that's "nightly business report" for monday, november 5. have a great evening everyone, and you too tom. >> tom: goodnight susie, we'll see you online at: www.nbr.com and back here tomorrow night. captioning sponsored by wpbt captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org